Predicting Art Market Profit Potential Pt. 1 – artmarketblog.com
Using auction prices to identify trends and determine whether the price being paid for a particular artist’s work is on the rise is all well and good, but by the time the price of an artist’s work begins to rise in a rapid manner, the best opportunity to profit from the price increase is likely to have already passed. Auction price databases such as artprice.com and artnet.com are extremely useful but they are really only useful for artists who already have an extensive auction sale record. What if there were a system that was able to identify those artists who are most likely to achieve market success before they actually do?. Well, you may be pleased to hear that there is. By looking at what is essentially one of the most influential factors that determines the success of an artist’s career, namely how many exhibitions an artist’s work is included in and how important those exhibitions are, ArtFacts.net is able to rank artists according to their fame and popularity in the cultural sphere as well as in the commercial gallery sphere. That ranking, according to ArtFacts.net, is generated according to the theory that the greater number of shows the artist has, the greater will be the fame of a particular artist. And, as we all know, familiarity generates demand, and increased demand equals increased value (usually). I don’t think that anyone can dispute the fact that museum and gallery shows make artists more saleable and raise the price of their work.
The way that the ArtFacts.net Artist Ranking Tool works is by assigning different points values to particular types of exhibitions and the different institutions and galleries that hold these exhibitions. The number of points assigned to an artist depends on the importance of that institution/gallery exhibiting their work and the amount of exposure that the exhibition gives the artist in question. According to the ArtFacts.net website “Solo shows are worth more than group shows or art fairs. Documenta, in Kassel, Germany, is worth more than the Venice Biennale. Public museums count more than galleries. And different museums have different weights. Those in cities like Paris or New York count for more. Small museums and university museums count for almost nothing”. There does of course have to be some sort of criteria to determine whether an artist is worthy of being included in the system which is where the eligibliity criteria come into play. For an artist to be ranked they must have a sufficiently international presence which in the case of ArtFacts.net means those artists that have long term ties with at least three countries. According to ArtFacts.net “A.R places great importance on the international representation of artists. Only artists operating in international structures will be chosen as a primary value source. The reason why A.R does this is because it recognises the worth of mutual knowledge. Only artists who are common to diverse societies, countries and/or cultures will be really important and therefore create a kind of brand or universal value (like a standard). So the A.R uses internationality as a standard for the basic calculations.”
To be continued…………..
**Nicholas Forrest is an art market analyst, art critic and journalist based in Sydney, Australia. He is the founder of http://www.artmarketblog.com, writes the art column for the magazine Antiques and Collectibles for Pleasure and Profit and contributes to many other publications